NEAR makes new coins. We measured how much it wins back.
8 quick steps. One idea each. Every number is real and you can check it.
- About 60 seconds
- 8 steps
- Last 29 days of NEAR mainnet
Every day, NEAR makes new coins.
That adds about 2.5% to the supply each year.
Why it matters: more coins means each coin you hold is a slightly smaller slice. This is called issuance.
Most dashboards only count the fee burn.
That's how much of the new NEAR gets burnt (destroyed) in fees.
Seen this way, NEAR needs 108× more activity before it destroys as much as it makes.
But there's a second flow: buybacks.
The NEAR Intents app sends NEAR into a buyback account every day. Count that too:
of the new NEAR is won back. That's 13 times what the fee burn alone shows.
When could NEAR win back everything it makes?
It depends on how fast NEAR Intents grows. Three speeds, all taken from real data:
The fastest fix isn't growth. If the buyback took every Intents fee and NEAR cut issuance (a proposal called HSP-029), even the middle speed gets there in about 7 years.
The catch. We show this too.
- iBought back isn't burnt.The NEAR sits in an account. Its owners could spend it.
- iiIt has dipped.From a peak of 16.5% down to 12.0% now.
- iiiOne app does most of it.NEAR Intents supplies 92% of what's won back.
- ivThe chain got quieter.Daily active accounts are down 70% since February. Most of the drop in app activity is one app (KaiChing) leaving. Intents went the other way: 2.8× more activity.
So what should an investor do?
Our honest call, in four lines:
- TodayNot yet a supply story. NEAR still mints about 8× what it wins back, and at the median growth rate in the data break-even is in 2110. Don't own NEAR expecting buybacks to offset dilution soon.
- The betGovernance, not growth. Sending every Intents fee to the buyback (today about 22%) and HSP-029's lower issuance would bring even the base case to about 7 years. Both are votes, not market conditions.
- Turn more bullish ifHSP-029 is ratified (its veto window runs to 16 Nov 2026, 16:48 UTC) and validators adopt it after the 90-day grace period, or the buyback's share of Intents fees rises toward 50%.
- Turn bearish ifthe buyback balance keeps falling, payback over 100 epochs drops below 6%, or transfers stop coming from intents.near.
We give ranges, not guesses.
One exact number is almost always wrong. So for every forecast we give a range, like "between 7% and 27%".
of the time, the real number landed inside our range when we tested it on past data.
That's the honest bar: tight enough to be useful, wide enough to be right most of the time. Expect the odd miss. A range that is never wrong is too wide to mean anything.
Don't trust us. Check it.
One command rebuilds every number on this page from the chain data, in under 2 seconds:
RESULT sha256=a214eaa40dbd90f2…
Our newest ranges were locked before the data existed and stamped in Bitcoin. NEAR's own chain scores them live.
That's it.
NEAR wins back 12.0% of what it makes, and break-even is 8.4× away, not 108×.